Compute as a Precious Commodity
Sam Altman, the CEO of OpenAI, firmly believes that compute will become one of the most precious commodities in the world. As the demand for powerful AI systems continues to grow, the ability to access and harness vast computational resources will be a defining factor in the future.
Altman expects that by the end of this decade, or possibly even sooner, we will have "quite capable systems" that will be truly remarkable, marking a significant milestone in the journey towards Artificial General Intelligence (AGI).
The Exponential Curve of Compute Demand
Altman envisions a future where the demand for compute will follow an exponential trajectory, akin to the growth in energy consumption or the way people utilize new technologies. He sees compute as a fundamental resource, much like energy, that will be integral to a wide range of applications and industries.
[Diagram to be made of exponential growth curve of compute demand]
As AI systems become increasingly capable, the appetite for compute will expand rapidly. Altman believes that at lower price points, we'll see people leveraging AI-powered assistants for everyday tasks, such as reading email or exploring potential solutions to complex problems. However, as the cost of compute increases, the focus will shift towards mission-critical applications, like tackling global challenges like curing cancer.
Challenges in Scaling Compute
Altman acknowledges that there are significant challenges in scaling compute to meet the growing demand. These challenges include:
- Energy Consumption: Powering the vast data centers required to support advanced AI systems will be a major hurdle, requiring innovative solutions in areas like nuclear energy and renewable sources.
- Supply Chain and Manufacturing: Ensuring a reliable and efficient supply chain for the specialized hardware required to run these AI models will be crucial.
- Data Center Infrastructure: Building the necessary infrastructure to house and manage the data centers that will power the next generation of AI will be a complex and capital-intensive undertaking.
Step 1: Invest in Compute Infrastructure
To address these challenges, Altman believes that significant investment in compute infrastructure is necessary. This includes:
- Expanding data center capacity
- Improving energy efficiency and exploring alternative energy sources
- Enhancing chip manufacturing capabilities
- Developing more advanced cooling systems and power distribution networks
Step 2: Collaborate Across Industries
Altman emphasizes the need for collaboration across industries, government, and academia to tackle the compute challenge. By bringing together experts from various fields, the goal is to develop innovative solutions that can scale compute while addressing the associated challenges.
Implications for the Future
As compute becomes an increasingly precious commodity, Altman foresees significant implications for the future. AI systems that can effectively harness and optimize the use of compute will have a distinct advantage, potentially leading to breakthroughs in fields like scientific discovery and economic growth.
Altman acknowledges that the road to AGI will likely be a "giant power struggle," as whoever builds the first AGI system will gain a considerable amount of power. This underscores the importance of robust governance and safety measures to ensure that the development of AGI is managed in a responsible and equitable manner.
By recognizing the value of compute and investing in the necessary infrastructure, Altman believes that we can unlock the true potential of AI and create a future where scientific progress and technological innovation thrive.